There was a time when design was slow, considered and informed. This was not simply a matter of culture or temperament. It reflected the economics of software at the time. Development used to be slow, expensive and risky. If you built the wrong thing, the cost of fixing it could be enormous, so product teams created space to think before they made.
We find ourselves at a singular moment of time. As an industry we’re starting to reach what I call The Feature Event Horizon. The point at which the time it takes to ship an idea is almost the same as the time it takes to come up with the idea in the first place. As we get closer to the threshold, time dilates. reality warps and we start to experience process collapse. What happens on the other side is anybody's guess, but it’s going to be bumpy. Let me explain. But first, let me start with a story.
Artificial intelligence is quietly reshaping the relationship between founders and venture capital. On the surface, the AI boom still looks familiar: huge rounds, soaring valuations, and a sense that you need billions just to stay in the race. But beneath that headline narrative, a very different kind of startup is emerging—what Anu Atluru calls the Silicon Valley Small Business.
A quick search for “startup books” will surface the usual classics: The Lean Startup, Crossing the Chasm, Blitzscaling, The Hard Thing About Hard Things. They’re thoughtful, often inspiring, and occasionally sobering. But when you’re in the messy middle of building a startup — trying to land your first customers, work out why growth has stalled, or decide what to do next with limited time and money — inspiration isn’t the thing you’re short on. Clarity is.
Every day people approach company leaders with problems in need of a quick fix. “The team is going to miss its deadline if we don’t do something about it” they’ll say, or “we just had some some really bad customer feedback and we need to make good. What do you think we should do?” Leaders want to feel helpful and decisive so they’ll often think about the problem for a few seconds before coming up with a solution. “Let’s bring in some freelancers to get the project over the finish line on time” they might say or “let’s give the client a free upgrade to keep them on side”.
As the technology landscape continues to evolve, so does the field of design. The rise of industrialization and automation has led to a shift from traditional craft skills to more assembly-based work. With the development of AI, we are seeing the possibility of even more automation in design. This raises questions about the future of the profession and the role of human designers. In this article I look at the commercial and technological trends facing the industry and try to imagine what comes next.