There’s a familiar libertarian story about Europe: too much bureaucracy, too many regulations, too many worker protections, too much privacy law, and too many rules about what companies can and can’t do. This, we’re told, is why Europe doesn’t produce as many world-beating technology companies as the US.
A friend recently sent me a post from "the bad place" that broke product designers down into four types.
The language was intentionally provocative. Some of it was needlessly mean-spirited. In places it was openly contemptuous. Certain designers were described as effectively worthless. Others were framed as self-important, disingenuous, or fundamentally unserious about the business.
And yet, beneath the aggression, I think there is a real, painful truth in there.
I don't think that AI is going to "kill design" in the next few years (as some pundits are claiming). However I do think we reached "peak designer" several years ago, and the volume of designers needed over the next 10 years will be less than the previous 10. (This is as much to do with the rise of design systems leading to the industrialisation of design, and the power shift of decision making, as it is AI)
There was a time when design was slow, considered and informed. This was not simply a matter of culture or temperament. It reflected the economics of software at the time. Development used to be slow, expensive and risky. If you built the wrong thing, the cost of fixing it could be enormous, so product teams created space to think before they made.
Coming from an agency background, I’ve always had a soft spot for the idea of the venture studio. At its simplest, it’s a pretty seductive model. Instead of using your design, engineering, marketing and commercial skills to help clients build their businesses in exchange for fees, you use those same capabilities to build companies of your own in exchange for equity.
We find ourselves at a singular moment of time. As an industry we’re starting to reach what I call The Feature Event Horizon. The point at which the time it takes to ship an idea is almost the same as the time it takes to come up with the idea in the first place. As we get closer to the threshold, time dilates. reality warps and we start to experience process collapse. What happens on the other side is anybody's guess, but it’s going to be bumpy. Let me explain. But first, let me start with a story.